RMI X change report on exponential EV adoption

 By Ian Page.

https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-cars/

you can get it from here.

Also the electricity one...

https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-electricity/

( Apparently, there is a whole set of X Change reports funded by Besos, taking an exponential approach rather than the usual linear  approach that  underestimates change.)

I've clipped out a significant section, but the whole report is worth reading.

  • EV will dominate sales by 2030. If we continue to solve the challenges and sales continue up the S-curves, then EVs will make up between 62% and 86% of sales by 2030, with China enjoying an EV market share of at least 90%. Meanwhile, consensus EV sales estimates are lagging and get upgraded every year. 
  • Peak ICE demand. Demand for new ICE vehicles peaked in 2017 and has been falling at 5% a year since. Rising scrappage and falling sales mean that the ICE fleet is about to peak and will be falling rapidly by 2030.
  • Peak oil demand for cars. Global oil demand to fuel cars reached a peak in 2019 and is currently on a typical plateau, squeezed between efficiency gains and the growth of EVs. By 2030 oil demand for cars will be falling at over 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) every year and the endgame for one quarter of global oil demand will be in sight.
  • Cars catalyze change in the transport sector. Rapid growth in batteries for cars is sparking the lower costs and higher energy density needed to drive change across the rest of the transport sector, from two-wheelers in the Global South to trucking in China and the US. That puts half of global oil demand at risk."

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